Publier

musk opened his mouth and $SPCX went up 40% in like… one meeting 👀 went from $104 to $146 off a single 29-min call. worth it or not is a different question but the market clearly bought it he said AI revenue in september will beat every other business combined, "not maybe, definitely." stock popped 9.7% that day, hit $149. up 35% off the recent low, shorts got wrecked too, went from 34% down to just 11% but ok let's actually look at the numbers for a sec Q2 revenue was $7.8b which sounds fine until you see capex at $18.3b, so they're spending 2.5x what they bring in. starlink's the only thing actually printing, $4.3b revenue, $1.66b operating profit, but that alone can't cover AI + rockets + starship all burning cash at once he's saying AI = 99% of company value in five years, compute going from 1.4GW to 10GW by year end, pointing to $300-500b annual rev eventually. big vision. meanwhile starship just did test flight 13 and even he admitted recovery "isn't very optimistic." so the actual milestones aren't there yet but the stock's already priced like they are also five batches of unlocks coming: aug 21, two in sept, two in oct, ~7% of float each time. that's a lot of new supply hitting soon price action rn: $146 has been stuck two days, can't clear $149, buyers showing up under $140. $135 was the issue price, break that and we're looking at $125-130. morningstar literally titled a report "rally detached from fundamentals" lol my plan: buy a little dip 140-142, stop 137, target 148-149 if $149 keeps rejecting, small short, stop 152, target 140 if $135 breaks, don't catch the knife, wait for 125-130 my take: hype rallies built on words instead of delivered milestones tend to give back fast, especially with unlocks lined up. under $140 feels way safer than fomo-ing $149 $SPCX $XSPCX