Rocky_BTC

Long term investor #BTC #TAO #SOL #SUI #XRP| MeMe Professional Data Player | Crypto since 2017 | Not financial advice, DYOR🙏

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Besides some well-known U.S. stock funds, hedge fund holdings are also an area that cannot be ignored, because hedge funds are among the very top on Wall Street, so observing their fund return rankings is crucial. Following the performance of well-performing funds often yields twice the result with half the effort! As of July 31, the global hedge fund return rankings! Looking closely, among the top six, four are actually connected to Citadel. The castle truly lives up to its reputation as the Whampoa Military Academy of hedge funds! The first and second places are both from Citadel, led by Ken Griffin. Among them, Citadel Equities is its main equity division and also the buyer of the Situational Awareness stock position in the acquisition of Silicon Valley genius Leopold fund Situational Awareness. After the acquisition, the performance exploded, which is understandable. August should look even better. Although shameless, it must be said that the Wolf of Wall Street is quite impressive. The July return reached 14.2%, and the full-year return was 27%! Citadel Tactical Trading, ranked second, is an independent sub-fund within Citadel that specializes in high-frequency, mid-frequency event-driven, arbitrage, and cross-asset tactical allocations. It is specifically designed for short-term arbitrage. The July return reached 11.1%, and the full-year return was 27%. I believe you picked up quite a few bargains during this Situational Awareness margin supplement process! Renaissance Institutional Equities Fund, ranked third, is the famous Simmons Renaissance Fund. Its most famous fund is the "Grand Medallion Fund," which far outperforms Buffett, but the Grand Medallion is only available to internal employees and not publicly disclosed. The core specializes in medium- to long-term quantitative factor investing, and today is the 14th, and the 13F report will be released soon. The July return was 9.2%, and the full-year return was 4.5%. FIFTHDELTA, ranked fourth, both founders were former top senior investment managers at Citadel and have close ties to Citadel. This fund is from Europe and is one of the largest single-strategy emerging hedge funds in Europe in recent years. Its core investments are in technology stocks and the industrial sector for short- and medium-term caps. The July return was 8.6%, and the full year was 7.5%. Quantedge Global Fund, ranked fifth, finally encounters an Asian fund. This company is from Singapore. It is currently the top systematic, full-asset macro quantitative hedge fund in Asia. High leverage + high volatility + global macro strategy, with an average five-year return in the 15-20% range, very impressive. The July return was 7.8%, and the full year was 34.6%. Statar Capital, ranked sixth, founded by a former head of Citadel's commodities division and a talented Citadel graduate, truly the Whampoa Military Academy of hedge funds, this fund mainly deals macro arbitrage in the bulk energy sector. The July return was 6.85%, and the full year was 13.7%. Notably, the well-known hedge fund Pershing Square posted a 3.9% return in July, but remained underwater for the year, at -9.2%. Its third largest holdings $UBER This year, it fell 15%, dragging down performance. Additionally, Whale Rock, one of the top hedge funds in recent years, saw its flagship fund fall 21.7% in July, and its pure long fund dropped 18.8%. However, if you rank by full-year performance, it ranks first, both with performance exceeding 35%. Once you know which funds have performed well and which are average recently, you can focus on observing their specific holdings in today's 13F report to make a directional judgment! Also, there's no need to be jealous. Those Twitter players who often earn several times their returns are the top of Wall Street, because none of the top people on Wall Street have annual returns exceeding 50%. The average annualized return is only about 12%. If your earnings exceed 12% this year, then be content—you've already surpassed the most outstanding talent on Wall Street!

I believe everyone has seen SpaceX's financial report. Many of you, like me, have already taken positions after the report, getting stuck in the short term. Combining some of my thoughts, here is some motivation for everyone! I still have long-term confidence in . Currently, just looking at financial reports and pricing loses much meaning, because it's no longer just a rocket company. The underlying pricing logic has changed—it's more like early Amazon. Amazon's logistics trucks and self-built warehouses don't make money or even cost huge sums, but it enables e-commerce to ship quickly and the AWS platform to expand smoothly. Starship's cost reduction and efficiency improvement aim to speed up satellite launches, network density, and computing power growth. So, purely from the rocket company's logic, most people probably can't understand SpaceX's valuation. What Musk really wants is to send satellites into space with rockets, control the global network with Starlink, and then use the network to support AI computing power. Once this network is rolled out, its flywheel will spin faster and faster! First of all, it must be acknowledged that this company is undoubtedly a revolutionary superstar in technology and business, but in the secondary market, the current stock price and the company itself are completely different. My personal judgment: In the short term (1-2 quarters): Chip unlocking selling pressure + valuation restructuring during the cognitive transition period will keep stock prices highly volatile and bear some pressure, making this a relatively good phase for picking up chips. Medium to long term (2-4 years): The business model will gradually complete its underlying restructuring. SpaceX has been reborn into a global distributed infrastructure network, merging with Tesla to become the world's largest company by market capitalization, aiming for $10 trillion. Let me share my thoughts: the first financial report after listing was truly impressive Looking at this financial report alone, there really aren't any major flaws in the indicators: Quarterly revenue: $7.8 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, far exceeding market expectations. Losses narrowing: Net losses shrank from 1 billion a year ago to 540 million, cutting in half, indicating that its scale effects are rapidly emerging. Three core businesses: 1. Rocket business (down to 12%): shifting from core revenue to underlying support Space launch revenue this quarter was $962 million, still a 29% year-on-year increase, but its share of total revenue has been diluted to 12%. More importantly, launch and Starship R&D recorded an overall operating loss of $542 million. Currently, many people in the market are still using the "space company" framework to calculate rocket launch counts and cost per project. But in fact, Starship's role in the current commercial structure has shifted to that of infrastructure laying tools. This logic is analogy to Amazon's early investment in building its own warehouses, which we just mentioned earlier. 2. Starlink (Revenue 4.29 billion, YoY +66%): A high-margin network engine Starlink achieved an operating profit of $1.66 billion, with an operating margin as high as 39%. User numbers surpassed 12 million (doubling year-on-year). Regarding the 23% year-on-year decline in ARPU, the market is somewhat worried about this indicator. As Starlink penetrates from high-income customers in North America and Europe into Southeast Asia, Latin America, and other global mass markets, the decline in average per-household income is an inevitable pattern in scale expansion, which is basically consistent with Netflix's globalization path back then. 3. AI computing power and infrastructure expansion (revenue 2.6 billion, Capex 18.4 billion) Of the $18.4 billion capital expenditure this quarter, about $15.8 billion was invested in infrastructure and computing network construction. The market's first reaction is fear of "losing control of cash burn." But it's important to note that Starlink's own 39% operating profit margin already has strong self-sustaining ability. This model of relying on its own mature business to sustain the next phase of infrastructure expansion is much healthier than companies that rely solely on equity or debt financing to burn cash. Short-term bargain opportunity: 910 million shares unlocked This is the core logic behind major short sellers in the current market and their short-term bearish outlook on SpaceX. This is the first unlocking after the IPO, and for spot traders, this is actually an excellent opportunity to pick up bargains. Don't forget, the squeeze caused by the short-selling crowd will be the driving force behind the rally! Undeniably, this surge in supply is indeed a bit worrying, with 910 million original shares released this time. In comparison, there are only about 556 million shares currently circulating in the market. This means that once the unlocking shares are released, the entire market's free float will instantly expand by more than 1.5 times. Among them, big institutions like Google and Fidelity, which have been lurking in very early stages, were generally invested around 2015, with valuations of only $10 to 15 billion, so costs were unimaginably low. Their original shares generally benefited a hundredfold. Moreover, Google has recently lacked funds for AI and has been issuing bonds. This opportunity will likely lead to gradual sell-offs, but theoretically it should be a major trade, with little chance of directly impacting the secondary market. But why is this a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to pick up bargain chips? Put yourself in their shoes: if you were a large institution holding heavy funds, would you buy at the high price? Absolutely not. Big money will quietly wait for the original shareholders to sell the shares and create a deep pit before buying shares at low levels, so retail investors can just follow along! Thursday and Friday might be a great opportunity! Will there be a short squeeze? As everyone knows, SpaceX currently holds 220 million short positions, accounting for about 34% of the float. Personally, I think the short market is too crowded right now. After the negative news materializes, a surge in short squeeze will occur, which is highly likely. Especially on Thursday and Friday nights! The unlock-up of 910 million shares is already an open and tangible move. A short squeeze is very likely, where bears want to close out but can't buy stocks and are forced to raise prices to grab shares, thereby driving up the stock price. Moreover, for 910 million shares, an institution like Google will most likely handle the issue through major trades, while SpaceX employees and core team have a low chance of selling at this level, after all, they are old friends who have suffocated their dreams to where they are today! In summary, this unlocking is a good opportunity to pick up bargains, and a Short Squeeze event is very likely. As the saying goes, bad news becomes positive. In the long run, I am very optimistic about SpaceX, and their CFO also said they will recover capital expenditures within a year.